Data for ""Majority Rule, Consensus Building, and the Power of the Chairman: Arthur Burns and the FOMC," by Henry Chappell, Rob Roy McGregor and Todd Vermilyea.
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Data is Arranged in Three Segments:
For all files listed below, click with the right mouse button and choose "Save Target Ss" to initiate a download.
The 2 tsp program files below estimate an individual reaction function for Morris (an example, there are corresponding files for each individual -- available below):
The files differ only in storing the results. "morr.tsp" stores desired interest rates for Morris when Morris was a voting member of the FOMC. "morr2.tsp" stores desired interest rates for Morris when Morris was a non-voting member of the FOMC. Estimates of the individual reaction functions are identical.
Similar programs for each of the other individuals are contained in this zip file:
These files read in two data files in excel format:
These files are also available as tab-delimited text files:
"ffrabl5p.xls" contains the original data describing members' preferences. The items are defined as follows:
"greenbk6.xls" contains macroeconomic forecasts from Greenbooks prepared for the FOMC. These variables appear as explanatory variables in individual reaction functions.
The programs that estimate individual reaction functions are also used to impute desired federal funds rates for FOMC members. The series of desired federal funds rates (combining explicitly stated and imputed measures) are summarized in two spreadsheets (one for voting members, one for non-voting members):
Committee means and medians (and other variables) are constructed using these data. Datasets including these variables are described in the next section.
All of the variables and programs described in this section are included in the following zip file:
CommitteeDecisionModels.Zip (To download, right mouse click, then choose "save target as")
Each column in Tables 3 and 4 in the paper represents the output of a single TSP program. The programs are named according to the following convention:
btij.tsp gives the estimation that produces the result in Table i, column j.
For example, bt46.tsp gives results for Table 4, column 6.
Each program presents OLS results; results of bootstrapping to produce correct p-values as described in Section V. of the Appendix are also provided in each program.
Each of these programs reads burnsdat.tlb as the source of data. This file includes the variables:
These variables are also available in an excel spreadsheet and in a tab-delimited text file.
Section IV of the Appendix to the paper contains results of unit root and cointegration tests. All data and tests, as well as a "readme" file are contained in the zip file below:
TimeSeriesAppendix.zip (To download, right mouse click, then choose "save target as")
Our article references an appendix available from the authors. That appendix is provided below:
firstname.lastname@example.org | Phone 803-777-4940 | Fax: 803-777-6876